High risk, high reward

A few days ago saw the addition of the Edge of the Mists patch. This new content released the new Edge of the Mists WvWvW map, and also a small portion of new story content relating to the current Scarlet arc. However, what this patch did not bring was any new chests or methods of obtaining the newer items like Zealot's and Keeper's recipes and also Watchwork Sprockets among other Watchwork items. What does this mean? Well in the short term I think it won't show as the Marionette is still in and even though the event won't be farmed as much as it was last week, new supply will still be popping up, keeping the prices fairly steady. With that said, I have already done my investments in the items I mentioned in previous posts and I will explain why below.

Right now the new recipes and the sprockets are sitting at pretty steady prices. I don't believe they will drop down any more, although it is possible and this is why these investments are high risk, but not without large potential. There is a huge risk in investing in these items in particular. Why? Because with two more major patches remaining in this current living story arc, it is unknown if any new sources of these items will appear. If they do, it's likely they will drop in price further. If they don't, if ArenaNet forgets about Zealot's and Keeper's like they did with Sentinel's, chances are the price will increase a lot over time, especially since this is a very popular stat combo on Guardian, as showcased by the price of the heavy recipes as well as the staff and greatsword in comparison of their counterparts.

So what did I invest in exactly? I purchased a decent sum of Watchwork Sprockets, about 5 of each of the Zealot's and Keeper's Orichalcum and Gossamer recipes and a few Mini Watchwork Moa's. Meanwhile the other recipes are, in my opinion, already very high priced, and unlikely to increase as much as the cheaper options because they are less universal. However, in the same comparison you could argue that the low supplied and/or high demanded expensive recipes like the greatsword and staff may be a perfect investment opportunity. Either way you look at it, all of these investments have their own risks. The recipes in particular are by far the highest risk, because it is uncertain whether or not fresh supply will be added often enough to counter the demand, or if the upcoming patches will add so much supply that their prices just sink to new lows. I think the dark horse is the Mini Watchwork Moa which, even though possible to be dropped in future patches, is more likely to be replaced by newer minis in the newer reward chests.