Blog Archive

Saturday, 16 January 2016

I Told You So!

I hate to say it but... I told you so! I'm back for another post guys and even though it's been a while, I am right on track according to my mid-long term investment advice. Do you remember what I mentioned a little over 3 months ago? Here is a reminder incase you forgot!

Just prior to the Heart of Thorns launch back in late October, I gave some advice about what to invest in based on an economy blog post from John Smith at the time. Leather was the target, and in particular, Thick and Hardened Leather Sections. If you took my advice on board and held out for the mid term - congradulations, you're now knee-deep in pure profit. Since mid October, Thick Leather Sections have more than tripled in price, from around 30 copper to a whopping 99 copper right now. This was largely boosted by the addition of certain temporary items during the Halloween festival, but has remained a slow gainer, largely due to the changes made to the availability of leather through salvaging. The biggest winner though is without doubt Hardened Leather Sections. This crafting material sat at 14 copper on the trading post for a ridiculous 18 months between February 2014 and September of last year. If you invested back then, I salute you! If you followed my advice and invested just prior to HoT launch and held on, you now have a massive winner! Hardened Leather Sections have increased nine-fold over the past 3 months, from 50 copper to a massive 4.5 silver. This has been another great example of a slow gainer, from supply and demand side changes.

To sell or not to sell


The next problem is whether to sell or not. So far there has been no indication of any economy related changes in the upcoming January 26 patch, although that does not mean it is not going to happen. It is indeed risky to hold onto your entire stock through a patch, so here is a good piece of advice if you are hoarding a bunch of leather right now. The absolute safest approach is of course to sell and bank your profit - although it may not be the smartest. The middle ground here is to sell off some of your investments, take the profit and hold the rest for a risky but rewarding potential payoff. The potential future of the leather market is an interesting one. With some cloth like Linen sitting at a ridiculous 14 silver, is it that hard to imagine leather reaching a similar price? Looking through the data, it is easy to see the severe lack of supply of Hardened Leather Sections - is it possible the price can skyrocket sooner than you think? I think it is. The supply is already making the price incredibly volatile, seeing an increase of a silver in just 2 days. If the January 26 patch does not bring any changes, I see of no reason why the price will stop increasing, and if changes are not implemented it might even just end up like Linen!

In that trail of thought then, should you sell or not? It is down to what you can afford to lose and what you are willing to risk. If you need the gold, make the sale and be happy with the profit. If you are willing to risk it all for an even bigger pay off, hold on tight... this one might come in big!

The next investment


On to the next investment, and it's all about festivals and festival items. 3 months ago Halloween was just beginning, with it, Trick or Treat bags - a common drop from most mobs and related quests. In 2014 ToT bags were fairly worthless aside from the extremely rare poly-luminecent gem drops - this is evidenced by the stale price of around 4.5 silver the whole year after the event. However, 2015 ToT bags are a different story entirely. The loot table was expanded to include a few new Halloween themed skins and some new minis. However, the biggest change comes with the interaction of two other changes - the introduction of a new recipe, and the alteration of Vial of Maize Balm, the item previously used to farm ToT bags year-round. Firstly and most importantly, the change, or I should say the absolute nerfing of Vial of Maize Balm! This item used to grant you 3 charges of an AoE skill that would transform ambient creatures into Candy Corn mobs. Each AoE would affect up to 3 creatures, thus each Vial could produce 9 mobs and each mob would drop a ToT bag... needless to say if you could get past the mindless farm, it was very lucrative. Vial of Maize Balm got nerfed to the ground in the Halloween 2015 patch, being changed to grant only 1 charge, and only affecting 1 creature, thus each Vial can only produce a single ToT bag now instead of the previous 9. This means, in short, that Trick or Treat bags are no longer farmed(perhaps until their price goes up dramatically). The other change was the introduction of a new high-tier item Nightfury. Nightfury is a cosmetic shoulder piece which engulfs the wearer in a swarm of bats. As such it is highly sought after, and it's recipe requires a rare item only dropped from ToT bags: Endless Batwing Brew. The Batwing Brew alone is very valuable, sitting at around 420 gold right now. This means it is a potential gamble to open ToT bags in an attempt to profit from a lucky Brew drop. This in turn leads to more demand for ToT bags, and since there is no more Maize Balm farm, less supply. On top of that we have the general demand of people wanting to get this item to build Nightfury for themselves.

This is why Trick or Treat bags are my advice for a go-to investment for the mid-long term. I'd advise buying in now, and sitting on them for 3-6 months. In just under 3 months since Halloween ended the price of ToT bags has already increased by around 2.5 silver, from just over 7 silver to around 9.5 silver right now. In another 3 months I would expect a 2-4 silver increase and in 6 months I could see the price sitting at anywhere between 15-20 silver. Nightfury will remain a highly sought after item, and the supply of ToT bags in not getting any richer. That means the supply of Endless Brew is in effect, very limited. Don't expect any fast gains on this investment, be patient and you will be rewarded.