Yes, I am back! Sorry for the very long period of no posting - I actually stopped playing Guild Wars 2 for a while because I had lost interest or rather my interests were on other things. But now I am back and enjoying the new content, the Living Story season 2 has kicked off in a fantastic fashion and I love the way ArenaNet are creating the new chapters through the story journal and other neat little features. Well, this blog is primarily for speculating the Guild Wars 2 marketplace, so lets get to it!
New content almost always proposes some new investment opportunities, but lets start with Dry Top since that was the initial content added at the start of season 2. The Gates of Maguuma introduced a new area(with exciting new mechanics), new stat combos, new trophy items and new skins. Firstly it should be noted that this content is assumed to be permanent and so items like Ambrite, the new crafting material, is unlikely to be a good investment opportunity.. or is it? See, in the past ArenaNet have added materials, such as Watchwork Sprockets, for particular purposes such as a currency used a festival vendors to obtain new items. However, in later patches the Watchwork Sprockets were used in certain crafting recipes etc and slowly but surely the demand for this item went ever upward, pushing its price higher and higher. It is not unlikely that Ambrite will be used as a component for new recipes in future patches, and so investing in some of this item when its price drops lower could be a great idea. In fact, the second installment of season 2, Entanglement, added a brand new use for Ambrite - namely the Ambrite weapon set - so keep a close eye on this crafting material.
The most recent patch, The Dragon's Reach: Part 1, added an interesting scavenger hunt for the new back piece Mysterious Vine. Some people believe this may be some form of beta testing for the long awaited precursor weapon crafting, and it may just be! Anyway, one particular item needed in the crafting of this back piece is the Foxfire Clusters. This is another new crafting material added, and it is acquired through(would you believe it) RNG. Yes, Foxfire Clusters drop at random from harvesting trees and fighting Mordrem, the new Elder Dragon's minions. I want to focus in particular on the harvesting of trees, as many other players have done so. If you go to Rayhan Bayt in Malchor's Leap and move to the Melandru statue just below the point of interest, you will find a cluster of Elder Wood trees and a load of people constantly harvesting them. Why are they doing this? Because Foxfire Clusters are currently worth ~62 silver EACH on the trading post, so if you get lucky you make a killing! As an investment prospect, for now Foxfire Clusters do not interest me - their value is only going down with the amount of people farming them, I am however interested in the byproduct - Elder Wood Logs. In the last week since the patch, the value of Elder Wood Logs has more than halved, from around 60 copper to just 25. I believe this is a fantastic investment prospect, as long as you are patient and you pay attention to the value of Foxfire Clusters - as they drop down much lower, many people will stop farming Elder Wood trees and so the fresh supply of Elder Wood logs will diminish and as such their price will eventually stop falling. When you see that the supply is not increasing as fast and the price no longer dropping, this is the time to invest. However you must be aware that, like Ambrite in the paragraph above, Foxfire Clusters may yet be used in other recipes in future patches.
On August 12th, we get The Dragon's Reach: Part 2. If you have not already seen the trailer, you can watch it here. Good luck with your speculations!
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